Build vs. Buy
Or, deciding where home's going to be.
In the weeks that followed the Marshall Fire we were 1000% determined to come back and build. We were already in the middle of a remodel with construction set to begin soon. And during the night of the fire I emailed our architect asking if she’d like to increase the scope of the project to be a whole house.
Her prompt response, “Absolutely!”
And so began the exciting process of designing a whole house from scratch. My wife, Emily, has great taste, and together with our architect she hatched a scheme to build a modern farmhouse (you know, those black, white, and triangular structures that are en vogue).
Within a week of the fire we were pre-approved for a construction loan.
Within three weeks of the fire we signed up to participate in the Boulder County/FEMA we-will-demo-and-haul-and-return-your-land-to-buildable-dirt plan. The plan called for being done and ready to build by July.
Cool, we’ll wait.
Within five weeks of the fire we had a bonafide design for our house. It’s gorgeous. Look at those windows!
Lawsuit.
Then, DIGS sued Boulder County claiming the demolition vendor selection process was unfair. Rumors swirled that the demolition-and-hauling timeline was now delayed by months. One person told me the best case scenario was now October before we could start building.
Ok, no problem. We’ll just back out of the Boulder County/FEMA program and go with a private vendor. Insurance will cover it.
And that’s what we did. We went private. We should be good to go by May. But the drama of the lawsuit made it clear the rebuilding process won’t be smooth; so many variables are involved (mortgage, permitting, FEMA, construction loan, supply chain, labor).
Putin invades Ukraine.
Then, Putin invaded Ukraine. We asked one prominent builder for a quote so we could know how much our triangle house would cost. And in the conversation he said this was the worst time to build that he’s seen in the thirty years he’s been in the business. There were already supply-chain issues because of the pandemic. It takes nine months to a year to get a dishwasher. And now, if Putin expands his ambition and invades a NATO country, all bets are off (anticipating uncertainty in the financial markets).
If the war stays contained to Ukraine, it’ll take 12 months from the start of construction for us to get a move-in ready house, he said. We could be back by summer 2023.
If Putin invades Poland, he has no idea.
What if we bought a house that was already put together?
With so much uncertainty, we started thinking that buying an already-put-together house should be a serious option for us. I mean, the dishwasher would come with it; we wouldn’t have to wait nine months for a new one. And if we bought now, we could lock in an interest rate and a mortgage before the war gets worse. Putin be damned.
We think we can sell our plot of dirt for around $350K. A couple of builders have proactively reached out expressing interest. Ironically, that amount is roughly equivalent to the equity we accrued in the house before the fire. Selling our dirt would get us close to whole, financially.
But where would we buy? I mean, there’s no inventory in Louisville. We could look down in Denver, where my parents and three brothers live. It’d be amazing to be close to them again. Today, our visits with them are scheduled and infrequent. Imagine a world where our kids had casual interaction with their grandparents, aunts, uncles, and cousins.
But, the community.
When faced with the question of whether we move away from Louisville, our kids want to stay. They love their school and they love their friends. So do Emily and I. And it’d be really tough to leave all that and ask our kids to start over. If we stay, they can have continuity with people and schools through their whole childhood. And that’s something I never had and always coveted.
But to get the community back we have to endure the uncertainty around pandemic-induced supply-chain problems and Putin’s war. By our calculation, the build option doesn’t get us back to normal for at least two years.
What do we do?
Will your Louisville community be there in 2 years? How many of your neighbors and kids’ friends are considering the same questions and how many of them will choose to leave?
If it were me, I’d buy an existing house.
After reading your post, my first gut reaction was "wait the two years", but then I got here and started reading the other posts "Children are resilient", and I agree, they are and will be, especially since the options you're suggesting will have lots of positive benefits.
Wait the two years? I take it that was still only a guesstimate, and.. I think finding good stable certainty now is a positive thing for everyone. I applaud you thinking of the kids. I guess it's not too far to set up a visit to old friends if desired.